上海 – 从现在起到2020年，煤基聚乙烯有望成为中国塑料业发展的重要推动力，将颇具成本竞争力，对抗低价竞争对手中东进口树脂，以及北美产基于页岩气的塑料。
At least according to recent analyst reports and statements, coal-to-olefins (CTO) technology is said to develop rapidly over the next five years and account for a significant proportion of China's polyethylene production.
At the Chinaplas exhibition held in Shanghai on April 24, multinational consulting company IHS Chemical stated that most of China's coal-based polyethylene is likely to be supplied to the domestic market.
Nick Vafiadis, senior director of global olefins and plastics business at IHS Chemical, said that from 2013 to 2018, 25% of China's local production capacity will be converted to coal-to-olefins technology. The vast majority of new production capacity will adopt this cheaper and more competitive [CTO] technology.
Platts, a multinational price and information provider, released a report on March 24 that China will add 14 million tons of polyethylene production capacity by 2021, most of which will be based on coal-to-olefins.
Global polyethylene demand last year was approximately 82 million tons.
Jim Foster, editorial director of petrochemical analysis at Platts, said in a statement that he has heard a lot of talk about how shale gas is a "game changer" for the petrochemical industry. "That's true. But as long as China follows its plan, coal-to-olefins has the potential to have a greater impact than shale gas."
Platts said that by 2020, China will put into operation more than 30 coal-to-olefins and methanol-to-olefins projects. The company said the amount of new coal-to-ethylene production in China is expected to equal the amount of new shale gas-to-ethylene production in North America.
Other analysts have questioned whether some of the announced CTO production capacity will eventually be put into production, because most CTO factories are in remote mining areas far away from China's plastics processing center, and there are also environmental issues involved, including the large amount of water required by CTO technology.
IHS believes that Chinese CTO materials may not necessarily be as low-priced as PE produced in North America or the Middle East, but they will still be highly cost competitive.
Vafiadis said the world is now developing two low-cost regions, the Middle East and North America. This is the first time North America has had such a status. In the past it was limited to the Middle East.
He said that now China is adding competitive [materials] with coal-to-olefin technology.
Last year, CTO technology accounted for less than 0.025% of global ethylene production capacity of approximately 133 million tons, IHS said.
But China's demand for polyethylene is expected to continue to outpace the global market, driving demand for local production, HIS said.
The consulting firm said China's PE consumption will maintain annual growth of 7.1% from now to 2018, higher than the global average growth of 4.8%.
Vafiadis believes that even if China is rich in coal resources, North American shale gas PE manufacturers are still expected to become more efficient exporters than Chinese companies.
He said North American producers have the ability to ship products profitably to almost any region in the world.
North American shale gas will also help local plastics processing companies become more competitive against Asian companies in plastic products, IHS said.
Vafiadis said that with the new competitive production capacity, North America will begin to compete with Chinese companies in the global market for finished product sales. North American producers who produce products suitable for export can use efficient packaging and have low transportation costs, and they will begin to compete for market share globally.
At least according to recent analyst reports and statements, coal-to-olefins (CTO) technology is said to develop rapidly over the next five years and account for a significant proportion of China's polyethylene production.
At the Chinaplas exhibition held in Shanghai on April 24, multinational consulting company IHS Chemical stated that most of China's coal-based polyethylene is likely to be supplied to the domestic market.
Nick Vafiadis, senior director of global olefins and plastics business at IHS Chemical, said that from 2013 to 2018, 25% of China's local production capacity will be converted to coal-to-olefins technology. The vast majority of new production capacity will adopt this cheaper and more competitive [CTO] technology.
Platts, a multinational price and information provider, released a report on March 24 that China will add 14 million tons of polyethylene production capacity by 2021, most of which will be based on coal-to-olefins.
Global polyethylene demand last year was approximately 82 million tons.
Jim Foster, editorial director of petrochemical analysis at Platts, said in a statement that he has heard a lot of talk about how shale gas is a "game changer" for the petrochemical industry. "That's true. But as long as China follows its plan, coal-to-olefins has the potential to have a greater impact than shale gas."
Platts said that by 2020, China will put into operation more than 30 coal-to-olefins and methanol-to-olefins projects. The company said the amount of new coal-to-ethylene production in China is expected to equal the amount of new shale gas-to-ethylene production in North America.
Other analysts have questioned whether some of the announced CTO production capacity will eventually be put into production, because most CTO factories are in remote mining areas far away from China's plastics processing center, and there are also environmental issues involved, including the large amount of water required by CTO technology.
IHS believes that Chinese CTO materials may not necessarily be as low-priced as PE produced in North America or the Middle East, but they will still be highly cost competitive.
Vafiadis said the world is now developing two low-cost regions, the Middle East and North America. This is the first time North America has had such a status. In the past it was limited to the Middle East.
He said that now China is adding competitive [materials] with coal-to-olefin technology.
Last year, CTO technology accounted for less than 0.025% of global ethylene production capacity of approximately 133 million tons, IHS said.
But China's demand for polyethylene is expected to continue to outpace the global market, driving demand for local production, HIS said.
The consulting firm said China's PE consumption will maintain annual growth of 7.1% from now to 2018, higher than the global average growth of 4.8%.
Vafiadis believes that even if China is rich in coal resources, North American shale gas PE manufacturers are still expected to become more efficient exporters than Chinese companies.
He said North American producers have the ability to ship products profitably to almost any region in the world.
North American shale gas will also help local plastics processing companies become more competitive against Asian companies in plastic products, IHS said.
Vafiadis said that with the new competitive production capacity, North America will begin to compete with Chinese companies in the global market for finished product sales. North American producers who produce products suitable for export can use efficient packaging and have low transportation costs, and they will begin to compete for market share globally.
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